Drawings and tables from 04-05 post updated with 04-06 data. For explanation please go to the original. Since France cases mortality rate was going up rapidly we’ve made it country in focus.
At the end we discuss possible daily deaths peak around population mortality rate of 0.25. Please share with friends, the latter information may be very important and needs to be verified. I’d be happy if somebody likes to discuss & challenge my reasoning.
High and low case mortality countries
- France is chasing Italy in cases mortality rate
- Australia and Israel cases mortality stays low, suggesting good Covid-19 testing performance
Country in focus – France
Daily deaths and mortality rate evolution
- High values of daily deaths on 04 and 05 April were not sustained
- 06 deaths rate returned to “standard” 500 value
- Please remember above dates pertain to ECDC data set publication date, so deaths were recorded at least one day earlier
Reported cases and estimated actual cases
- Huge gap between reported and estimated cases, similar to Italy
Covidmeter – population impact
- Spain took over Italy and has now top population mortality rate
- Netherlands data were not published in 04-06 ECDC data set, so its line is shorter.
Population impact table
Still only one country outside EU in top 10. Try to locate it.
|2||United States of America||327167434||312237||8501||2.72||0.03|
Covidmeter – Diamond Princess comparison
Do daily deaths peak around population mortality 0.25 per thousand?
Covidmeter graph shows Spain and Italy (higher mortality group) are leading Belgium, France and Netherlands (higher mortality group) in population mortality rate (0.25 vs 0.1). Let us see if there is any difference in daily deaths pattern between groups.
Belgium, France and Netherlands – lower population mortality group
For lower population mortality group countries daily deaths count is growing.
Spain, Italy – higher population mortality group
For higher population mortality group daily death count started to drop.
- Italy daily deaths peaked once population mortality reached 0.25
- Spain daily deaths peaked once population mortality reached 0.25
- Cases mortality is 12.3% for Italy and 9.4% for Spain
This is too early to call it final, but a pattern may be emerging here: Daily mortality grows until population mortality of 0.25 per thousand is reached. Then Daily mortality starts to drop. It may result from population contagion saturation. Those susceptible to Covid-19 contracted the disease, potential new cases pool is shrinking. In the meantime people who got ill start to recover, number of ill people is shrinking thus resulting in less daily deaths. In result epidemic subsides.
Population mortality rate of 0.25 may be not universal for all. It will depend on country population health, age and distribution. Lock down measures also play role here, Italy deaths happened mostly in northern pat of country. Travel restriction clearly slow down epidemic progress. Still 0.25 makes me believe Covid-19 mortality rate for population may be much lower than initially feared.