Figure below compares TTF gas prices in October March period in recent years. Year 2021 shows how price fared before full scale war on Ukraine started (Feb 2022). Year 2022 is intentionally omitted since war start resulted in rapid price increase and wild swings. Year 2023 plot is on right y-axis.

Price increase observed in Dec 2024 – Jan 2025 period reversed and we are back to +40 EUR/MWh level. What is clearly visible is Russian pipeline gas replacement resulted in permanent price increase. It is not clear why 2025 price is 50% above 2024. EU does import LNG from Russia, attempts to eliminate it are likely to result i n price hike.