Covidmeter 31.05

Covidmeter findings:

  1. Lock down easing does not result in Covid-19 surge, it was not preventing spread neither. Thus we can call the virus lock down neutral
  2. All quiet in China, reporting is key success factor I presume
  3. Covid-19 worldwide deaths toll scary in absolute numbers pales compared with human population size
  4. Both common cold and Covid-19 are here to stay, they will not take us all from here to eternity, just some individuals

Picture below shows China and San Marino cases over last 6 weeks, we show absolute number. China success is hard to believe if you think about difference i population size.

World summary

Table below shows key numbers on Covid-19 development. ECDC data sets provide information on cases and deaths, so we can find some top scores. Metric come in some variations, they can be combined:

  1. Suffix 1M – per 1 million inhabitants data.
  2. Suffix 7d MA – 7 days moving average
  3. Prefix population > – values calculated for countries above population threshold.
max cumulative cases2020-05-31United States of America1770384327167434
max cumulative deaths2020-05-31United States of America103781327167434
max cumulative cases 1M2020-05-31Qatar198662781677
max cumulative deaths 1M2020-05-24San Marino124333785
max daily deaths 1M 7d MA2020-03-22San Marino6333785
population > 100000,
max cumulative cases 1M
population > 100000,
max cumulative deaths 1M
population > 100000,
max daily deaths 1M 7d MA
population > 100000,
max daily deaths 1M
recent cases max2020-05-31Brazil33274209469333
recent deaths max2020-05-31Brazil956209469333
recent cases max 1M2020-05-31Qatar8462781677
recent deaths max 1M2020-05-31Brazil4209469333
worldldwide Covid1-19 cases2020-05-3160275467550105433
worldldwide Covid1-19 deaths2020-05-313705647550105433
  1. USA leads in absolute numbers, it has big population but China one is even bigger and pandemic started there. China either quenched Covid-19 or implemented creative reporting, the former is easier.
  2. San Marino had one Covid-19 death on May 24th, previous one happened 27th April and they report cases on daily basis. There is a good chance the virus penetrated entire population, killed 0.12%, This hardly qualifies as carnage.
  3. Daily deaths maximum straight number (Ireland) and moving average (Belgium) were scored back in April
  4. Absolute number of deaths is impressive but it represents around 1% of all deaths on Earth in Feb – mid May time frame. Human population is huge, we are mortal, 7.5 billion population produces in average over 200 thousands deaths per day.

Top countries

Figures below show top 30 countries selected by cumulative number of cases. The group represents 89% of total cases and 94% of total deaths. In top 30 group lowest cumulative cases figure is 30.7 thousand cases.

  1. Countries are sorted by cumulative cases per 1 million people
  2. China (CN) is unique in its ability to stop Covid-19. No other country poor nor rich small nor big was able to repeat its success. China culture is not about social distancing. Is superb quarantine or rather creative reporting behind China success?
  1. Countries are sorted by cumulative deaths per 1 million people
  2. Again China is at the end. Normally country first hit by epidemic will suffer most, others can learn from its experience and prepare a better response. Maybe they are stubborn to learn and inept to implement solutions instantly developed in China?
  1. Countries are sorted by cases mortality
  2. Please note wide range of cases mortality rate, from 0.1% Singapore to 20% France. This indicates wide difference in both death and case definition.

Covid-19 cases and deaths evolution

Figure below compare recent and reference values. We show Covid-19 cases and deaths. Countries are selected in the following way:

  1. Dashed lines represent reference countries, we are looking for historical maximum in the following categories:
    1. cumulative cases (cc),
    2. cumulative cases per 1 million people (cc_1M),
    3. cases per 1 million people 7 days moving average (cma_1M)
  2. Solid lines represent 3 countries with top recent cma_1M.
  3. Country once selected is excluded from subsequent selections.

Rule for deaths comparison is similar to cases one.

  1. Quatar reports significantly more cases per million people than any country, while its death toll is low (see earlier charts). We see historical maximum in cumulative cases per million and cases per million moving average now, so Quatar line is dashed. This can be explained either by superb testing coverage or long lag between infection (case) and death. Please note cases surge took place in April. Lock down measures did not help to prevent it.
  2. South America and Persian Gulf is Covid-19 are hot spots, again lock down does not prevent Covid-19 spread.
  1. No country is close to make new record in this category

Cases mortality comparison

We calculate cases mortality dividing cumulative deaths by cumulative cases. High and low cases mortality countries are selected in the following way:

  1. More than 20 cumulative deaths and 10000 cumulative cases
  2. Sort by cases mortality rate
  3. Take top 5 and bottom 5 from above list
  4. Add Germany to result
  1. Top mortality countries is stable
  2. Russia left low mortality group

Chart below shows countries with lowest mortality rate with Russia added.

  1. Russia has very high number of cases, almost 400 thousands
  2. Singapore has around 34 thousands cases and very low mortality rate, total deaths as of 31.05 are 23.

Cumulative deaths per 1 million people

  1. Leaders group is constant


Covidmeter compares cumulative deaths per million people for top countries with reference. Reference countries are:

  1. Diamond Princess cruise ship
  2. San Marino – country, enclave in Italy

DP development is closed, crew and passengers disembarked the ship. San Marino is a live group, the country has tiny population, over 30 thousands, but it was hard hit my Covid-19.

  1. No country came close to Diamond Princess death toll declared limit at the beginning of April
  2. San Marino still reports Covid-19 cases on daily basis, last deaths were reported 27th April and 24th May. Neither Covid-19 nor common cold will be fully eliminated there.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.