Covidmeter – Covid19 in numbers and facts – 23.04 update

Charts and tables updated with 23.04 data. Please go here for missing definitions. Key findings:

  • Belgium probably over reported Covid19 deaths
  • New cases at Singapore are surging, mortality is still low
  • No unified definition of Covid19 inflicted death obstructs country data comparison
  • Country lock down does not compensate high population density

Deaths per 1 million population

  • Calculate daily deaths per 1 million people (deaths_1M) defined as:
    (deaths in country on given day) / (country population size) * (1 million)
  • Take all countries from ECDC data set with more than 10 cumulative Covid-19 deaths and more than 100 detected cases, sort descending by deaths_1M
  • Take top 10 countries from above list and plot results

Isle of Man joined top group, it has population of 80 thousands, 15 deaths

No changes in above one million population countries group

Cases per 1 million population

Ranking created like the one for deaths:

  • Calculate daily cases per 1 million people (cases_1M) defined as:
    (new cases in country on given day) / (country population size) * (1 million)
  • Take all countries from ECDC data set with more than 10 cumulative Covid-19 deaths and more than 100 detected cases, sort descending by cases_1M
  • Take top 10 countries from above list and plot results

Please note Luxembourg is 3rd in all countries ranking, it has around 600 thousands inhabitants. It seems to be well after infections peak.

Singapore cases are growing rapidly, death count is still tiny. We’ll keep an eye on it.

High and low cases mortality countries

  • More than 20 cumulative deaths and 10000 cumulative cases
  • Sort by cases mortality rate
  • Take top 5 and bottom 5 from above list
  • Add Germany to result

Sweden replaced Netherlands in top 5. Saudi Arabia joined bottom 5 (exceeded 20 deaths threshold)

As of 2020-04-23 there were 29 countries meeting 100 cumulative deaths and 10000 cumulative cases threshold. They are listed in table below sorted by cases mortality rate top down. Poland is among new countries in the group.

United Kingdom6648899113349518100272.213.56
Iran, Islamic Republic of8180026985996539165.96.27
United States of America32716743484262946784143.05.55
Korea, Republic of51635256107022404.62.24
Saudi Arabia33699947127721143.40.89
Russian Federation144478050579995133.60.88

Country insight

Change in layout of this section we compare countries selected after lock down measures severity. Numbers on list below reflect country ranking

  1. Belgium – moderate: business shutdown, sport activities outside allowed. Population density 376/km2
  2. France – severe: business shutdown, stay at home order so no sports outside. Population density 104/km2
  3. Sweden – relaxed: Keep social distance but some public places remain open. Population density 23/km2

It seems Covid19 impact grows with population density. In my opinion lock down measures efficiency is limited in densely populated areas.

Daily deaths

Belgium ranking can be overstated. There were comments Belgium reported all deaths in nursery houses for eledery people as Covid19 caused without actual virus presence test. This practice has been probably abolish recently. We’ll try to investigate it further. Please note there is no unified definition of Covid19 victim, so deaths reported in countries may adopt different criteria. Unfortunately there is no information on total daily deaths in ECDC data set.

Daily cases

I do hope France under reports cases, otherwise 18% cases mortality looks scary.

Cumulative cases and deaths

Newcomer – Poland

Poland matches standard pattern: Low testing capacity focuses on more severe cases with higher death probability. In result cases mortality goes up.

Population mortality

  • Calculate cumulative deaths per 1 million people (cumdeaths_1M) defined as:
    (total deaths in country till given date) / (country population size) * 1 million
  • Take countries with population above 1 million
  • Sort by cumdeaths_1M descending
  • Select top 5 from above list

Belgium qualified all deceased in nursery houses as Covid19 victims without testing for actual virus presence. The line should be revised down probably.


San Marino reference line uptick due to additional death. Please remember population is tiny, every deaths is visible. Lack of common definition of Covid19 fatality can easily obscure this ranking.

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